Let’s face it—real estate news is louder than an air horn at dawn. Every headline, every prediction—it’s enough to make you want to stick your head in the sand. But here’s the real deal, served with the data that matters.
Rates Took a Nosedive...Briefly
Remember when rates dipped below 6.5%? Yeah, like a flash sale at South Coast Plaza—here one minute, gone the next. From mid-September to early October, mortgage rates finally gave us a breather, hitting 6.11%—the lowest since February 2023. For four whole weeks, buyers emerged, and pending sales jumped 13%. Homes were selling faster too, with the Expected Market Time (think “days on market” but with less waiting and more caffeine) dropping from 78 to 69 days. But October had other plans. Rates rose back up to 7%, just in time to make buyers rethink splurging on that extra guac.
Inventory: Moving Slower Than the 405 at Rush Hour
In a typical year, inventory peaks by late summer. But this year? It dragged on, like waiting for your macchiatto at a hipster café—longer than you’d like. From July to October, we saw active listings grow by 21%, hitting 3,694 homes. That’s 48% more than last year’s peak, and right now, it’s inching back down. But with 7% mortgage rates, don’t expect the inventory to vanish like free samples at Costco. Some homes have been sitting unsold so long, they’re practically getting squatters’ rights, with 35% of listings dropping their prices at least once.
The Buyer-Seller Dance: Who’s Leading?
We’re in what the pros call a “buyer’s market.” And if you’re picturing buyers in power suits and aviators, you’re not far off. With mortgage payments higher than the average SoCal rent, homes are lingering on the market, making sellers more open to negotiating. If you’re a buyer with a sharp agent, this is the best time since 2022 to snap up a deal. Sellers who thought they’d cash in on the summer surge are finding out that the market isn’t exactly rolling out the red carpet—and that’s great news if you’re ready to drive a hard bargain.
The Luxury Scene: Not Exactly “Instant Sale” Material
The top-tier market—homes priced above $2 million—is moving at the pace of a Monday morning. With an Expected Market Time of 155 days, selling a high-end property these days is more like running a marathon than a sprint. Just last year, this segment was moving quicker with a 126-day turnover. For those in the ultra-luxe range (homes over $6 million), you’re looking at an average of 346 days to find that perfect buyer—enough time to learn to surf, get bored of it, and pick up pickleball instead.
Price Cuts Galore: When Fantasy Meets Reality
Buyers, if you’re tired of seeing overpriced listings, you’re not alone. Almost 35% of active listings have seen a price cut, with an average reduction of 4.43%. That’s the difference between a $1,000,000 property and a slightly more “down-to-earth” $955,700. The days of “list high, sell higher” are as gone as Blockbuster, folks. Sellers who aren’t adjusting to today’s reality? They’re in for a cold, hard truth—not a bidding war.
What This Means for You
Buyers: Patience is your best friend right now. More homes, more price cuts, and a chance to negotiate like you’re haggling over the last parking spot at Fashion Island. Keep an eye on those new listings, but don’t rush—there’s no need to dive headfirst.
Sellers: It’s time to get strategic. Pricing right is no longer just a good idea; it’s survival. If your home’s been sitting, it’s time to give that price tag a reality check.
Luxury Sellers: Pack snacks. Selling a high-end home requires patience, a solid game plan, and maybe a few new streaming subscriptions to pass the time.
Bottom line? This market’s all about timing, and whether you're ready to buy or sell, the right moves make all the difference. Forget the noise—let’s focus on the facts and turn today’s shifts into your advantage.
Ready to take action? Let’s make it happen. Give us a call, and let’s get you ahead in this market.
Comments